The so-called pundits, who have been mostly wrong at every turn in this presidential campaign, say Trump can’t win the nomination before the convention. Below, I cite an article by a writer who seems to have a pretty good handle on how the rest of the voting will roll.
Whether Mr. Ohlemacher gets it right or not, I think you will find it interesting about how little voting counts in this process. Trump is being called a crybaby for complaining about the rules. Really? Look at Pennsylvania below: Pennsylvania could be trouble for Trump. The state has a unique system in which 54 delegates — three from each congressional district — are listed by name on the ballot, with no information for voters to know which candidate they support. That means even if Trump wins Pennsylvania, he’s only guaranteed to claim 17 of the state’s 71 delegates How easy is it for the Republican establishment to mess with the outcome of this election? Trump could get 60% of the vote in the state and get 17 delegates. Nice. It’s not the people who nominate a president it’s Reince Penis and his merry band of thieves. If we the people decide we don’t want a politician, a member of the little grab what you can club, it’s just too bad. No, it’s really just sad, very sad that we’ve let Mr. Penis and his Democratic counterpart take control of our country.
So, how does one become a delegate? It depends on the state and the party, but for the most part, here’s Mr. Penis on the subject: A Note from RNC Chairman Reince Priebus: Following the 2012 presidential election, we recognized the need to avoid a drawn out primary process and together have worked to change our primary calendar to shorten the process and accommodate an earlier convention. I’m incredibly pleased with the progress we’ve made to improve our Republican primary process. Our party is headed into the presidential election cycle stronger than ever, and we look forward to supporting our future Republican nominee as we work to take back the White House in 2016. The nominee will be chosen by primary voters and delegates, as allotted by state parties and RNC rules. Recently, state parties submitted their delegate selection and allocation plans for the 2016 Republican presidential nominating process. Here’s what you need to know: How Many Delegates Does Each State Get? Each state’s delegate allotment is set by national party rules and includes at-large delegates, congressional district delegates, and national party representatives. Apart from the states, the District of Columbia and the five territories are awarded a specified number of at-large delegates. What Are the Different Kinds of Delegates? There are three types of delegates: At-Large Delegates (AL), Congressional District Delegates (CD), and Republican National Committee Members.
- At-Large Delegates (AL) are statewide delegates who are residents of that state and are selected at large. Each state receives 10 AL delegates plus additional AL delegates based on the state’s past Republican electoral successes. (10 delegates + bonus)
- Congressional District (CD) Delegates must be residents of and selected by the congressional district they represent. Each state gets three CD delegates per district. (3 delegates per district)
- RNC Members are automatically national convention delegates and include the state’s national committeeman, national committeewoman, and state chair. (3 delegates)
Herein lies the issue for Mr. Trump. You do see the undue influence the RNC has on the process from A to Z. Their little pets, who kicked in money to the RNC to try to elect Cruz, will go to the convention and vote however Mr. Penis tells them to vote. So, it you are like me, and are tired of watching the RNC being run by losers( can you say Michael Steele) and hence picking losers(can you say McCain and Romney) and tired of lawyers and political hacks running the country, you need to pray the following happens. Also, I strongly encourage letters to the aforementioned Mr. Penis, expressing your displeasure regarding his little effort to foist Mr. Cruz on us.
This, per Stephen Ohlemacher: There are 95 delegates at stake in the Empire State, and it’s important for Trump to win a big majority of them. It won’t be easy. There are 14 statewide delegates and three delegates in each congressional district. If a candidate gets more than 50 percent of the statewide vote, he gets all 14 delegates. Otherwise, he has to share them with other candidates. If a candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote in a congressional district, he gets all three delegates. Otherwise, again, he has to share. Trump leads statewide in the most recent preference polls, with right around 50 percent. New York is a large and diverse state, so he probably won’t win all the congressional districts. Let’s say Trump does make it to 50 percent, but Kasich or Cruz wins five congressional districts; Trump will take 77 delegates on the night. Trump’s running total: 821 delegates. ___
APRIL 26 Five states have primaries on April 26, with 172 delegates at stake: Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island. Pennsylvania could be trouble for Trump. The state has a unique system in which 54 delegates — three from each congressional district — are listed by name on the ballot, with no information for voters to know which candidate they support. That means even if Trump wins Pennsylvania, he’s only guaranteed to claim 17 of the state’s 71 delegates. Connecticut awards 13 delegates to the statewide winner and three to the winner of each congressional district, for a total of 28. The New York real estate mogul needs to win his neighboring state. If he does well, he could get 22 delegates. Delaware’s 16 delegates are winner-take-all, increasing the importance of this small state. If Trump loses Delaware, he has to make it up elsewhere. Maryland awards 14 delegates to the statewide winner and three to the winner of each congressional district, for a total of 38. Recent polls show Trump with a significant lead. If he does well, he could get 32 delegates. Trump can afford to lose Rhode Island, which awards its 19 delegates proportionally. In all, it’s a day on which we’ll say Trump claims 93 delegates. Trump’s running total: 914. ___
MAY Five states hold contests in May, with a total of 199 delegates at stake: Indiana, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oregon and Washington State. Indiana’s May 3 primary is important for Trump. The state awards 30 delegates to the statewide winner and three delegates to the winner of each congressional district, for a total of 57. If Trump can win the state and a majority of the congressional districts, he could collect 45 delegates. West Virginia is another unique state in which voters elect 31 delegates in the May 10 primary. In West Virginia, however, the delegates will be listed on the ballot along with the presidential candidate they support. If Trump does well here, he could pick up 20 or more delegates. Nebraska’s 36 delegates are winner-take-all. But if Nebraska is like its neighbors Kansas and Iowa, two states Cruz won earlier in the race, Trump can’t count on these delegates. Oregon and Washington state award delegates proportionally, so even the losers get some. We’ll give Trump 70 delegates for the month. Trump’s running total: 984. ___
JUNE 7 This could be Trump’s D-Day. Or his Waterloo. Five states vote on June 7, with 303 delegates up for grabs. The biggest prize is California, along with New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana and New Mexico. The only state Trump can afford to lose is New Mexico, which awards 24 delegates proportionally. New Jersey, South Dakota and Montana are winner-take-all, with a total of 107 delegates. California is more complicated, with 172 delegates at stake. The statewide winner gets only 13. The other 159 are awarded according to the results in individual congressional districts. Each of the state’s 53 congressional districts has three delegates. You win the district, you get all three.
For Trump to clinch the nomination on June 7 — the last day of the primary season — he has to win a big majority of California’s congressional districts. If he wins 39 districts, he gets 130 delegates. On the last voting day of the primary campaign, we’ll say Trump wins 242 delegates. Trump’s running total: 1,226 — or 11 delegates short of the magic number.
___ OH, WAIT! Missouri has certified the results of its March 15 primary, with Trump beating Cruz by 1,965 votes. If the results survive a potential recount, Trump wins Missouri and another 12 delegates. Trump’s total: 1,238. Cue the balloons. _
__ Follow Stephen Ohlemacher on Twitter at http://twitter.com/stephenatap
