Trump Vote Update

April/28/2016 10:32AM
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reince

Refer to the update in this blog dated 4/17/16. But, start Trump with the 949 delegates he has today, not the 914 the aforementioned article had him with going into May.  With that little adjustment, he finishes with 1333 delegates vs. the 1237 needed to win the nomination.

So, this is why Cruz is in a panic and trying to cut a deal with Kasich. This is why Kasich is backing out of the deal. This is why Reince Penis is in a sweat. This is why the media is blasting Trump daily and saying he can’t beat Hillary. Basically, it’s looking like he will have the delegates going into the convention. Isn’t it great to see a candidate who can do what no one says he can do? Maybe he can make America Great Again. He’s not relying on the media to spin a Hope and Change tale.

MAY Five states hold contests in May, with a total of 199 delegates at stake: Indiana, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oregon and Washington State. Indiana’s May 3 primary is important for Trump. The state awards 30 delegates to the statewide winner and three delegates to the winner of each congressional district, for a total of 57. If Trump can win the state and a majority of the congressional districts, he could collect 45 delegates. West Virginia is another unique state in which voters elect 31 delegates in the May 10 primary. In West Virginia, however, the delegates will be listed on the ballot along with the presidential candidate they support. If Trump does well here, he could pick up 20 or more delegates. Nebraska’s 36 delegates are winner-take-all. But if Nebraska is like its neighbors Kansas and Iowa, two states Cruz won earlier in the race, Trump can’t count on these delegates. Oregon and Washington state award delegates proportionally, so even the losers get some. We’ll give Trump 70 delegates for the month. Trump’s running total: 984. ___(now, 1069, not 984)

JUNE 7 This could be Trump’s D-Day. Or his Waterloo. Five states vote on June 7, with 303 delegates up for grabs. The biggest prize is California, along with New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana and New Mexico. The only state Trump can afford to lose is New Mexico, which awards 24 delegates proportionally. New Jersey, South Dakota and Montana are winner-take-all, with a total of 107 delegates. California is more complicated, with 172 delegates at stake. The statewide winner gets only 13. The other 159 are awarded according to the results in individual congressional districts. Each of the state’s 53 congressional districts has three delegates. You win the district, you get all three.

For Trump to clinch the nomination on June 7 — the last day of the primary season — he has to win a big majority of California’s congressional districts. If he wins 39 districts, he gets 130 delegates. On the last voting day of the primary campaign, we’ll say Trump wins 242 delegates. Trump’s running total: 1,226 — or 11 delegates short of the magic number. No, it’s 1311 or 74 more than the 1237 he needs.

___ OH, WAIT! Missouri has certified the results of its March 15 primary, with Trump beating Cruz by 1,965 votes. If the results survive a potential recount, Trump wins Missouri and another 12 delegates. Trump’s total: 1,238. Cue the balloons. He finishes with 1333.

 

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Comments (2)

  1. Tom Reynolds says:

    Go Trump. I still have his hat. I’ll wear it to the smart table.

  2. Doug Gordon says:

    Looks like Cruz believes the math now. As usual you were correct,

Leave a Reply to Tom Reynolds