Turnout Will Determine the Election

October/22/2010 16:06PM
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Pundits are saying the November election is tightening up. They still concede the House to the Republicans but don’t think they will win the votes to take the Senate.

But, the polls in mid-term elections are fragile at best. Too many people say they will turn out to vote but don’t. It really gets down to which voters are motivated. In this election despite desperate last-minute efforts by Obama, many Obama voters will not vote. The voters who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction will vote. The 60% who don’t believe Obama is doing a good job will turn out to vote. The 85% who believe the Congress is doing a poor job are likely to vote. The elderly who believe the Obamacare plan is a bad idea will vote. The elderly who realize Obama’s plan to raise capital gains and dividend taxes will hit their pocketbooks will vote.

If this is true, those who are reading the polls will be unpleasantly surprised.

Hence, I will go out on a limb and say the Republicans will win 55-60 seats in the House. And, they will get the majority in the Senate by a razor thin margin.

But, it may be a hollow victory. Unless, the winners have the courage of Chris Christie, the promises will not be kept. The serious business of slashing government spending will be too hard to do. Once in, they will want to stay in. To do the bidding of the public, they will subject themselves to media ridicule. The public will be unhappy with the results if they do cut expenses. Look at France. We are a skinny inch from being like France and the UK. They are at the point where they have no choice. Still, for adding two years to the French retirement age the protesters have shut down the country.

Cutting expense is work that requires great courage and commitment. I question whether the Republican incumbents and the new electees have that kind of mettle.

Time will tell.

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