Midterm Election Predictions

July/28/2018 7:08AM
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Google the title. Most responses you get are predicting the Democrat Party will take the House and most say the Senate as well. Hard to find any optimism for the Republicans.

Here’s what the guru of election predictions has to say:

CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (WVIR) – The University of Virginia Center for Politics says the commonwealth will play a pivotal role in the midterm elections this fall. Director Larry Sabato has released new insights into races across the country and in Virginia. Overall, Sabato predicts that Democrats are now in a position to reclaim the U.S. House of Representatives. Several statewide races, including the 5th District, could shape that. “It’s an adjustment to realize that Virginia now leans Democratic, it now leans blue. It may be even a little further Democratic than leaning blue. So, amazingly enough Virginia is probably going to play a key role in Democrats takeover of the House, if in fact they take it over,” said the director. Sabato says as many as four out of 11 districts in Virginia could flip parties. He also adds Democrats are more energetic about voting in November compared to Republicans.

I like to check the track record for guru’s. Here’s Sabato’s election eve call for the 2016 Presidential election. sabatos predictions Whoa. When you hear “university” and politics, you pretty much know who the pollster is pulling for in any election.   How did Mr. Sabato do?


While Clinton received about 2.9 million more votes nationwide, a margin of 2.1%, Trump won 30 states with a total of 306 electors, or 57% of the 538 available. … In the Electoral College vote on December 19, seven electors voted against their pledged candidates: two against Trump and five against Clinton.

United States presidential election, 2016 – Wikipedia



I tend to go with the money men when it comes to predictions. So, here’s what my guys say:

Goldman Sachs: Chances of a Democrat ‘blue wave’ in November are diminishing

  • The prediction market-implied odds of Republicans maintaining their majority in the House is 44 percent, up from 32 percent two months ago. Odds of the GOP holding its majority in the Senate are 75 percent, up from 64 percent.
  • The generic ballot, which asks voters if they prefer a Republican or Democratic majority in Congress, peaked at a 12 percentage point Democrat advantage in December and is back down to 5 to 6 points, Goldman said.

So, here are your options. Go with the herd, which is mostly composed of media and university polls. Those who still believe Obama was the greatest President in history, or go with the money guys who make billions being right predicting where the markets are headed.

Personally, I believe the 4.1% GDP sealed the deal.

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Comment (1)

  1. Doug Gordon says:

    Sabato also got Republican Senate seats, House seats, and Governors too low, but when you’re a liberal prognosticator being right really isn’t as important as being politically correct.

    My plan to make my vote finally count for something: after the 2018 mid-terms living in the ultra liberal Massachusetts, I hope to move to Texas before the next presidential election.

    This seems the only way in the ultra partisan politics that have evolved in the United States these days.

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