Inflating Election Polls

September/29/2012 16:39PM
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Who has accurate poll numbers for the November election?

According to a Washington Post Florida poll,  Obama leads Romney by four percentage points (51 to 47), but that poll, according to O’Reilly, contains more Democrats polled than Republicans. So where’s the accuracy in that?

Likewise, the New York Times poll for the same state shows an even greater discrepancy, with Obama leading Romney by nine percentage points (53 to 44).

Now how can two different news agencies get such varied readings in the same state on who is ahead in the polls if they are being unbiased in their reporting?

No wonder a conservative group is taking issue with some media reports about bias, which they contend is being forced upon a voting public by a liberal media–and perpetuated by news agencies like ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC.

O’Reilly went on to say that polling by the Post and the Times for the state of Ohio shows an even greater discrepancy between the two polling groups, with the Post showing Ohio voters favoring Obama by eight percentage points (52 to 44) and the Times showing they favor him over Romney by 10 points (53 o 43).

A bit hard to believe considering the seemingly “divided right down the middle” group of citizens weighing in on all America’s political issues.

Perception is everything to some, however, so it is important that voters know the facts of who is really in the lead when it comes to the presidential election of 2012.

And as it stands on Thursday, according to the reputable national Rasmussen Poll, it’s a dead heat between Obama and challenger Mitt Romney in the presidential election 2012.

Here’s the question of the day. Who benefits from election poll inflation?

The Romney campaign claims the polls are skewed since they are using the percentage of Democrats/Republicans who voted in 2008 for polling. According to the Romney folks, if they use the percentage that voted in 2010, Romney is ahead.

I’m no pollster, but as someone who looked at hundreds of consumer research surveys, that makes sense to me.

As the mass media trumpets the Obama lead, are they helping or hurting Obama?

Here’s my theory. The voters who were so highly motivated to vote for Obama in 2008 are not as highly motivated this year. This, again, comes from the pollsters and the mass media.

If you think your guy has the election sewed up, why bother to vote, right?

Is it possible that pumping up the poll numbers and pounding that into the public every day will cost Obama the election?

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