Romney Will Win in a Landslide

August/25/2012 16:40PM
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Finally some good news. The ladies all do look better at closing time. For those of you losing sleep over the bogus poll data you get from network news, here’s some good news. First, the bogus poll.

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The current view of the 2012 presidential election, based on HuffPost Pollster charts and analysis.

Updated: Thursday, Aug. 23 6:26 am ET

Obama

247
Electoral Votes

Barack Obama

Romney

191
Electoral Votes

Mitt Romney

270 electoral votes needed to win

California

55 electoral votes
Strong Obama
Click to see polls

Connecticut

7 electoral votes
Strong Obama

District of Columbia

3 electoral votes
Strong Obama

Delaware

3 electoral votes
Strong Obama

Hawaii

4 electoral votes
Strong Obama

Illinois

20 electoral votes
Strong Obama

Massachusetts

11 electoral votes
Strong Obama
Click to see polls

Maryland

10 electoral votes
Strong Obama

Maine

4 electoral votes
Strong Obama
Click to see polls

New Jersey

14 electoral votes
Strong Obama
Click to see polls

New Mexico

5 electoral votes
Strong Obama
Click to see polls

New York

29 electoral votes
Strong Obama
Click to see polls

Oregon

7 electoral votes
Strong Obama
Click to see polls

Rhode Island

4 electoral votes
Strong Obama

Vermont

3 electoral votes
Strong Obama

Washington

12 electoral votes
Strong Obama
Click to see polls

Michigan

16 electoral votes
Leans Obama
Click to see polls

Minnesota

10 electoral votes
Leans Obama
Click to see polls

New Hampshire

4 electoral votes
Leans Obama
Click to see polls

Nevada

6 electoral votes
Leans Obama
Click to see polls

Pennsylvania

20 electoral votes
Leans Obama
Click to see polls

Colorado

9 electoral votes
Tossup
Click to see polls

Florida

29 electoral votes
Tossup
Click to see polls

Iowa

6 electoral votes
Tossup
Click to see polls

North Carolina

15 electoral votes
Tossup
Click to see polls

Ohio

18 electoral votes
Tossup
Click to see polls

Virginia

13 electoral votes
Tossup
Click to see polls

Wisconsin

10 electoral votes
Tossup
Click to see polls

Georgia

16 electoral votes
Leans Romney
Click to see polls

Missouri

10 electoral votes
Leans Romney
Click to see polls

Alaska

3 electoral votes
Strong Romney

Alabama

9 electoral votes
Strong Romney

Arkansas

6 electoral votes
Strong Romney

Arizona

11 electoral votes
Strong Romney
Click to see polls

Idaho

4 electoral votes
Strong Romney

Indiana

11 electoral votes
Strong Romney

Kansas

6 electoral votes
Strong Romney

Kentucky

8 electoral votes
Strong Romney

Louisiana

8 electoral votes
Strong Romney

Mississippi

6 electoral votes
Strong Romney

Montana

3 electoral votes
Strong Romney
Click to see polls

North Dakota

3 electoral votes
Strong Romney
Click to see polls

Nebraska

5 electoral votes
Strong Romney

Oklahoma

7 electoral votes
Strong Romney

South Carolina

9 electoral votes
Strong Romney

South Dakota

3 electoral votes
Strong Romney

Tennessee

11 electoral votes
Strong Romney

Texas

38 electoral votes
Strong Romney
Click to see polls

Utah

6 electoral votes
Strong Romney

West Virginia

5 electoral votes
Strong Romney

Wyoming

3 electoral votes
Strong Romney
191 Strong Obama
56 Leans Obama
100 Tossup
26 Leans Romney
165 Strong Romney
Cartogram
Traditional map

Texas

38 electoral votes
Strong Romney
Click to see polls

 

8/23 v ? v Wis.
8/15 i ? i Ohio
8/13 X ? X Mo.
8/10 L ? L Iowa
8/7 F ? F Colo.
7/30 l ? l Pa.

 

Pollster outlook Past results
State Electoral votes Obama Romney Margin ’08 ’04 ’00
B            Alabama 9 R R R
A            Alaska 3 R R R
DArizona 11 41% 54%                 Romney +12 R R R
C            Arkansas 6 R R R
ECalifornia 55 52% 35%                 Obama +17 D D D
FColorado 9 48% 47%                 Tossup D R R
G            Connecticut 7 D D D
H            Delaware 3 D D D
y            District of Columbia 3 D D D
IFlorida 29 46% 46%                 Tossup D R R
JGeorgia 16 46% 49%                 Romney +3 R R R
K            Hawaii 4 D D D
M            Idaho 4 R R R
N            Illinois 20 D D D
O            Indiana 11 D R R
LIowa 6 45% 46%                 Tossup D R D
P            Kansas 6 R R R
Q            Kentucky 8 R R R
R            Louisiana 8 R R R
UMaine 4 49% 34%                 Obama +15 D D D
T            Maryland 10 D D D
SMassachusetts 11 55% 39%                 Obama +16 D D D
VMichigan 16 47% 44%                 Obama +3 D D D
WMinnesota 10 46% 40%                 Obama +6 D D D
Y            Mississippi 6 R R R
XMissouri 10 44% 49%                 Romney +5 R R R
ZMontana 3 38% 55%                 Romney +17 R R R
c            Nebraska 5 R* R R
gNevada 6 48% 45%                 Obama +3 D R R
dNew Hampshire 4 49% 45%                 Obama +4 D D R
eNew Jersey 14 49% 38%                 Obama +12 D D D
fNew Mexico 5 52% 43%                 Obama +9 D R D
hNew York 29 61% 33%                 Obama +28 D D D
aNorth Carolina 15 46% 48%                 Tossup D R R
bNorth Dakota 3 35% 54%                 Romney +19 R R R
iOhio 18 48% 45%                 Tossup D R R
j            Oklahoma 7 R R R
kOregon 7 50% 42%                 Obama +8 D D D
lPennsylvania 20 48% 42%                 Obama +6 D D D
m            Rhode Island 4 D D D
n            South Carolina 9 R R R
o            South Dakota 3 R R R
p            Tennessee 11 R R R
qTexas 38 35% 55%                 Romney +20 R R R
r            Utah 6 R R R
t            Vermont 3 D D D
sVirginia 13 47% 45%                 Tossup D R R
uWashington 12 52% 37%                 Obama +15 D D D
w            West Virginia 5 R R R
vWisconsin 10 49% 46%                 Tossup D D D
x            Wyoming 3 R R R
*In 2008, Nebraska’s electoral votes were split. McCain took four of the state’s five electoral votes and Obama took one.

 

Copyright © 2012 TheHuffingtonPost.com, Inc. | “The Huffington Post” is a registered trademark of TheHuffingtonPost.com, Inc. All rights reserved.
HuffPost News


Compare that with this. Go to the sink and dump all those Ambien down the drain. This should help you sleep between now and November. This is not a poll, but a prediction based on past experience. 

Hopefully, the model will prove it’s value in November.

 

 

Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012

Posted: 08/22/2012  5:09 pm Updated: 08/22/2012  8:53 pm

 

 

 

Electoral College Predictions 2012

Will Mitt Romney win in 2012?

Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election and the result is bad news for Barack Obama. The model points to a Mitt Romney victory in 2012.

Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” Bickers said in a press statement.

To predict the race’s outcome, the model uses economic indicators from all 50 states and it shows 320 electoral votes for Romney and 218 for Obama, according to The Associated Press. The model also suggests that Romney will win every state currently considered a swing state which includes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.

The professors’ model shows a very different picture than what current data suggests. Currently, The Huffington Post’s Election Dashboard shows Obama with 257 electoral votes to Romney’s 191 with only six “tossup” states including: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

Berry cautions that just because the model has worked in the past, doesn’t mean it will work this time. “As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” Berry said in a statement. Some of those factors include the timeframe of the current economic data used in the study (the data used was taken five months before the November election, but Berry and Bickers plan to update it with more current data come September) as well as tight races. States that are very close to a 50-50 split, the authors warn, can fall in an unexpected direction.

According to current data from The Huffington Post Election Dashboard, there are at least 13 states that are either dead heats or within a handful of percentage points in either direction.

Currently HuffPost’s Pollster, tracking 403 national polls, estimates Obama leading the tight race nationally with 46.3 percent to Romney’s 45.2 percent.

This kind of Electoral College model developed by the Bickers and Berry is the only only one of its kind to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions — both national unemployment rates as well as per capita income, according to a press release about the study from University of Colorado. Research suggested that voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.

“The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said. To which Bickers added, “The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”

 

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